Nigeria's Inflation Rises to 15.38% in March 2026, Driven by Food and Core Price Increases

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate saw a notable rise in March 2026, increasing by 32 basis points (bps) to 15.38% year-on-year (y/y), compared to 15.06% in February. This marks the first increase in inflation since March 2025. Despite this uptick, the outturn was slightly below the revised estimate of 15.40% y/y, reflecting the country’s ongoing challenges in managing rising consumer prices.

Consumer Prices Accelerate in March

On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, consumer prices accelerated sharply in March, rising by 4.18%, up from 2.01% in February. This significant increase highlights a faster pace of inflation across various sectors of the economy, with food prices and core inflation seeing particular pressure.

Food Inflation Sees Significant Spike

Food inflation saw the most notable jump, rising by 219 basis points to 14.31% y/y in March, compared to 12.12% y/y in February. This spike in food inflation is attributed to the price increases of key staple foods, particularly those that have been impacted by supply chain constraints and seasonality. Products like yams, fresh ginger, cassava tubers, shelled groundnuts, Irish potatoes, and several dried and fresh varieties, such as ogbono (also known as Apon) and tomatoes, have all experienced price hikes. On a m/m basis, food prices rose by 4.17%, although slightly lower than the 4.69% m/m increase in February.

Core Inflation Pressures Intensify

Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy prices, also experienced upward pressure in March, rising by 33bps to 16.21% y/y, from 15.88% in February. This marks a significant increase in the prices of goods and services unrelated to food and energy. On a m/m basis, the core index jumped sharply by 4.03%, compared to just 0.89% in February, underscoring a broad-based increase in prices, including non-food items such as transportation, housing, and healthcare.

Drivers of Inflationary Pressures

The primary drivers of inflation in March can be attributed to supply-side factors, including higher costs for agricultural produce, transportation, and energy. The agricultural sector, which is highly susceptible to weather conditions and logistical challenges, saw substantial price hikes in both fresh and processed food products. Additionally, the rising costs of energy and fuel are continuing to strain households and businesses alike, contributing to the overall upward trend in inflation.

The sharp increase in core inflation indicates that price pressures are not confined to food alone but are spreading across various segments of the economy. This broad-based inflationary environment suggests that inflationary expectations are entrenched, and there may be challenges in controlling price growth in the near term.

Outlook and Economic Impact

The continued rise in both food and core inflation points to mounting challenges for the Nigerian economy, particularly for low-income households, who are most vulnerable to the cost-of-living increases. With inflation rising across both food and non-food categories, the purchasing power of consumers is being eroded, and businesses are facing higher input costs.

In response, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to maintain a close watch on inflationary trends and may adjust monetary policy accordingly to curb rising prices. However, the policy space for intervention is becoming increasingly limited, with higher interest rates potentially further stifling economic growth.

For now, the outlook for inflation remains uncertain, with supply-side constraints, rising energy prices, and the weak naira continuing to drive up consumer prices. It will be critical for the Nigerian government to focus on addressing these structural issues to mitigate further inflationary pressures.