Nigeria’s inflation outlook showed renewed signs of improvement as headline inflation dropped to 16.05% in October 2025, down from 18.02% recorded in September. The decline marks one of the most significant month-to-month drops of the year and points to a gradual cooling of price pressures across the economy.
Headline Inflation Shows Strong Deceleration
The easing of headline inflation underscores the impact of recent policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing markets, improving supply flows, and supporting the naira. Month-on-month (MoM), headline inflation rose by 0.93%, a slower pace compared to previous months, indicating that upward pressure on prices is beginning to moderate.
Food Inflation Records a Rare MoM Decline
Food inflation—often the most painful component for households—delivered one of the biggest surprises.
- Food inflation recorded a MoM decline of –0.37%, a rare break from months of severe increases.
This drop has been attributed to improvements in the supply of key food items, better transportation conditions, and easing logistics bottlenecks. For millions of Nigerians, this represents welcome relief after a prolonged surge in food costs.
Core Inflation Remains Elevated but Stabilizing
While the easing of headline and food inflation is encouraging, analysts caution that core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—remains sticky and elevated.
This sustained pressure reflects ongoing challenges such as high production costs, currency fluctuations, and energy-related expenses. Nevertheless, the stabilization in overall price growth suggests that core inflation may also begin to soften if current trends continue.
Policy Actions Show Early Signs of Success
Economic observers believe that a combination of tighter monetary controls earlier in the year, improved market supply, and selected fiscal interventions are contributing to the inflation slowdown. The Central Bank’s recent shift toward a more accommodative stance could further support price stability if current conditions persist.
