Nigeria’s economic landscape has undergone a significant transformation following the official rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), revealing a dramatic shift in sectoral contributions and the real drivers of economic activity.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently updated Nigeria’s GDP base year from 2010 to 2019, reflecting the changing structure of the economy and providing a more accurate snapshot of sectoral contributions. The results of this rebasing exercise are monumental in scope and impact. The revisions show that real estate has leapfrogged oil and gas to become the third-largest contributor to Nigeria’s economy, while trade has surged to the number one position.
A Structural Shift in Nigeria’s Economy
The rebased figures show that crop production remains the largest individual sector in Nigeria, reinforcing the significance of agriculture in the country’s economic framework. However, trade, which encompasses wholesale and retail activities across the formal and informal sectors, now ranks as the second-largest sector. The most notable shift is the emergence of real estate as the third-largest contributor, displacing crude petroleum and natural gas, which have historically been among the top three.
This realignment underscores how Nigeria’s economic foundation is moving away from oil dependency and increasingly driven by services, urbanization, population growth, and structural diversification.
Nominal GDP Now Valued at ₦372.8 Trillion
With the rebasing completed, Nigeria’s nominal GDP for 2024 has increased to ₦372.8 trillion, equivalent to approximately $243 billion. This marks a 41.7 percent upward revision from previously published figures. The size of the economy has not only grown on paper but also revealed a more complex, service-oriented structure that had been underrepresented in older GDP calculations.
Real Estate: From Marginal to Major
The real estate sector has seen explosive growth in its nominal valuation. In 2023, before the rebasing, it was valued at ₦10.5 trillion and ranked fifth among the country’s top sectors. After rebasing, the sector surged to ₦30.7 trillion in 2023 and further rose to ₦41.3 trillion in 2024, now standing as the third-largest economic sector in Nigeria.
This remarkable growth is attributed to improved data capturing of property transactions, rental activities, estate development, and land value appreciation. Additionally, Nigeria’s rapid urbanization, persistent housing deficit, and the rising demand for commercial infrastructure have expanded the sector’s economic weight.
In Q3 2024 alone, real estate contributed around 5.4 percent to Nigeria’s real GDP and grew 46.5 percent year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.2 percent. These numbers signal that the sector is not only expanding but is doing so at a pace much faster than most traditional sectors.
Trade Rises to the Top
Trade, previously the second-largest contributor to GDP, now leads with a nominal value of ₦68 trillion in 2024. The trade sector includes wholesale and retail operations, covering both formal businesses and Nigeria’s expansive informal market. This result highlights the sheer volume of market transactions occurring across the country and emphasizes the vibrancy of commerce as a major economic engine.
The dominance of trade is a testament to Nigeria’s consumer-driven economy, where market activity remains deeply embedded in daily life and livelihoods.
Oil and Gas Loses Its Dominance
For decades, oil and gas occupied a dominant place in Nigeria’s economic rankings, serving as both the country’s primary export and the leading GDP contributor. The rebasing has pushed this sector to fifth place, with a nominal contribution of ₦13.1 trillion in 2023.
This decline can be traced to persistent issues such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, declining production capacity, and global transitions to renewable energy. The relative weakening of oil and gas in the GDP structure further reflects Nigeria’s gradual economic diversification.
Telecommunications and Services Gain Ground
One of the most important reclassifications in the rebasing exercise is the treatment of telecommunications as a standalone sector. Previously grouped under information and communication, telecommunications now ranks as the fourth-largest sector, having expanded significantly due to the digital transformation across Nigeria. The growth of mobile data, fintech platforms, digital banking, and online commerce have made telecommunications an essential part of economic activity.
Additionally, the broader services sector, including trade, telecommunications, real estate, and finance, now contributes around 55 percent of total GDP, up from 53 percent prior to the rebasing.
Table 1: Sectoral Composition of GDP (Pre- and Post-Rebasing)
| Rank | Sector | Pre-Rebasing (2023) | Post-Rebasing (2023) | Post-Rebasing (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crop Production | 1st (under Agriculture) | 1st | ₦61.9 trillion |
| 2 | Trade (Wholesale and Retail) | 2nd | 2nd | ₦68 trillion |
| 3 | Real Estate | 5th (₦10.5 trillion) | 3rd (₦30.7 trillion) | ₦41.3 trillion |
| 4 | Telecommunications | Grouped under ICT | 4th | Included in Services |
| 5 | Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas | 3rd | 5th | ₦13.1 trillion |
| 6 | Construction | 6th | 6th | Not specified |
| 7 | Food, Beverages and Tobacco | 7th | 7th | Not specified |
Implications of the New GDP Structure
.Improved Fiscal Metrics:
The rebased GDP reduces Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio, previously estimated at over 50 percent, to closer to 40 percent. This presents a more favorable picture of Nigeria’s fiscal sustainability and could improve the country’s credit outlook.
.Better Economic Planning:
A clearer understanding of sectoral strengths allows for more targeted policymaking. For instance, the prominence of real estate could prompt reforms in land use regulation, mortgage accessibility, and housing finance.
.Investor Reorientation:
With new data showing real estate, trade, and telecommunications as top-performing sectors, both local and foreign investors are likely to adjust their focus. The rebasing gives legitimacy to sectors that were previously underweighted in investor decision-making.
.Economic Diversification Confirmed:
Nigeria has long aimed to diversify its economy beyond oil. The latest GDP figures prove that progress has been made, with the dominance of oil and gas substantially reduced in favor of a broader base of economic contributors.
